700+ Free Bitcoin & Blockchain Images - Pixabay

Bitconnect Crypto

For discussions about Bitconnect Crypto currency
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DesignerReps Buy, Sell, Trade

This section is primarily used strictly for the selling of designer replica pieces or trading of designer replica pieces.
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The Unofficial subreddit for The Ocean CleanUp Project

Improperly disposed plastics usually wind up in the ocean, where they can remain for hundreds of years before degrading which are easily ingested by fish and spread through ocean ecosystems and enter human diets through commercial fishing, thereby exposing humans to health risks. The Ocean Cleanup aims to address this problem by removing and recycling plastic directly from the surface of the ocean. This subreddit serves as a discussion platform for these and similar ocean cleaning technologies.
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This NFT shows the price and image of Bitcoin according to its volatility

This NFT shows the price and image of Bitcoin according to its volatility submitted by JossX to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

This NFT shows the price and image of Bitcoin according to its volatility (x-post from /r/Cryptocurrency)

This NFT shows the price and image of Bitcoin according to its volatility (x-post from /Cryptocurrency) submitted by ASICmachine to CryptoCurrencyClassic [link] [comments]

Fresh new Banner... Wanted to change it up a bit. Also noted the Bitcoin Price action in my blog... The image was put together to simply reflect my atitute towards it. #Bitcoin #BTC https://www.mammycrypto.com/2020/08/bitcoin-believer-recent-price-action.html

Fresh new Banner... Wanted to change it up a bit. Also noted the Bitcoin Price action in my blog... The image was put together to simply reflect my atitute towards it. #Bitcoin #BTC https://www.mammycrypto.com/2020/08/bitcoin-believer-recent-price-action.html submitted by Msmaecrypto to u/Msmaecrypto [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Madness: How to Simulate Bitcoin Prices in Google Sheets

Original Medium post can be found here: https://medium.com/@spreadstreet/bitcoin-madness-how-to-simulate-bitcoin-prices-in-google-sheets-c61cb42f26ed
You know the scenario...
Bitcoin had another huge increase, but you missed the opportunity. You wanted to get in, but your gut instinct told you no. And rightfully so...no one knows where the price is going to go. What if you invested, and it had another 20% loss? These sort of price movements are common in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies.
Seriously...how far can this Bitcoin price really go?

BITCOIN IS A VOLATILE BEAST

Risk analysis must be a part of every decision you make.
You are constantly faced with uncertainty, ambiguity, and variability. Variability, in the case of Bitcoin, unlike anything we have ever seen before. And even though we have unprecedented access to information, we can’t accurately predict the future.
Luckily, we have methods that enable you to see all the possible outcomes of your decisions, and assess the impact of risk.

WHERE TO START?

Running simulations can prepare us for the worst.
Monte Carlo simulation (also known as the Monte Carlo Method) allows for better decision making under uncertainty.
One of the most common ways to estimate risk is the use of a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). From Investopedia:
For example, to calculate the value at risk (VaR) of a portfolio, we can run a Monte Carlo simulation that attempts to predict the worst likely loss for a portfolio given a confidence interval over a specified time horizon - we always need to specify two conditions for VaR: confidence and horizon. (For related reading, see The Uses And Limits Of Volatility and Introduction To Value At Risk (VAR) - Part 1 and Part 2.)
A MCS can be run with many different models. Our own process will be:
  1. Specify a model (for here, we will use geometric Brownian motion)
  2. Get historical daily bitcoin prices
  3. Calculate daily returns
  4. Name the daily return range
  5. Summary statistics
  6. Simulate a year
  7. Simulate a year many times
  8. Multi-year summary statistics
  9. Quick analysis of results

STEP 1. WTF IS GEOMETRIC BROWNIAN MOTION?

The geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a statistical method that is used heavily in the forecasting of stock prices. The reason the process is so attractive for this is because of the following:
The GBM is technically a Markov process, which is a fancy way of saying "A random process whose future probabilities are determined by its most recent values." Said another way, past price information is already incorporated and the next price movement is "conditionally independent" of past price movements.
Math geeks have a habit of making things infinitely more complicated than they have to be. I will do my best to make this as simple as possible.
The formula for GBM is as follows:
gBm formula
Where:
This formula can be broken down into two very important terms: "drift" and "shock".
For each time period, our model assumes the price will "drift" up by the expected return. But the drift will be shocked (added or subtracted) by a random shock. The random shock will be the standard deviation "s" multiplied by a random number "e". This is simply a way of scaling the standard deviation.

STEP 1A. THE THUNDER GOD ELI5

The ELI5 version: The thunder god Zeus is a great god. A just god.
But Zeus is subject to wild mood swings.
Every day Zeus can shoot his magic lightning into the price of Bitcoin, and cause it to go up or down.
Some days he is in such a good mood, that he shocks the price up by a random amount. On other days, he is in such a poor mood that he shocks the price down for opposing him.
Zeus Striking Down the Price
And thus, we have the essence of GBM: a series of steps with an expected upward drift, where each step is hit with a plus/minus shock (which is a function of the stock's standard deviation).

STEP 2. HISTORICAL DAILY BITCOIN PRICES

Copy the raw data scores from coinmarketcap. Paste the data into your own spreadsheet.
For this exercise, your columns will be: Time, Open, Close, High, Low, Volume.
Columns Setup OHLCV
Want to automatically pull in Bitcoin prices? Use the Spreadstreet Google Sheets Add-in.

STEP 3. CALCULATE DAILY RETURNS

Calculate daily returns from the "Close" price. in H2 put the formula:
=LN(C2/B2) 
Drag it all the way down to the end of the prices to fill the entire Returns column
Calculate Daily Returns

STEP 4. NAME THE DAILY RETURNS RANGE

Create a named range from the returns column, called returns, to make our life easier. Highlight all the data in column H, i.e. cells H1:H1000, then click on the menu Data > Named ranges… and call the range returns:
Name the range returns

STEP 5. SUMMARY STATISTICS

Set up a small summary table with the close, daily volatility, annual volatility, daily drift, annual drift, and mean drift of our population. The formulas are:
In K1, enter:
=C2 
and name it close.
In K2, enter:
=STDEV(returns) 
and name it dailyVolatility
In K3, enter:
=dailyVolatility*SQRT(365) 
and name it annualVolatility
In K4, enter:
=AVERAGE(returns) 
and name it dailyDrift
In K5, enter:
=dailyDrift*365 
and name it annualDrift
In K6, enter:
=dailyDrift-0.5*dailyVolatility^2 
and name it meanDrift
Create Summary Statistics Table

STEP 6. SIMULATE A YEAR

Setup the yearly simulation table with Time, Normdist, Log Return, and Simulated Price

Time

In J12 put 0, and in J13 put:
=J12+1 
Drag it all the way down to your preferred forecast timeframe. Here I simulated a year (365 days), so I copied down to J377
Time

Normdist

Let’s set up the normal distribution curve values.
Google Sheets has a formula NORMDIST which calculates the value of the normal distribution function for a given value, mean and standard deviation. Since we ascribe to the random walk theory, we want to use a mean of 0, and a standard deviation of 1.
In K13, put the formula:
=NORMINV(RAND(),0,1) 
Drag it all the way down to K377 to fill the whole Normdist column:
Normdist

Log Return

To get the percentage of daily stock movement, we will calculate log return.
In L13, put the formula:
=meanDrift+dailyVolatility*K13 
Copy the formula all the way down to L377:
Log Return

Simulated Price

Now to the real meat. Let's calculate the simulated Bitcoin price.
In M12 put the Close price, and in M13, put:
=M12*EXP(L13) 
Copy the formula all the way down to M377:
Simulated Price

Forecasted Bitcoin price for one year

Let's see what the pricing data looks like.
Select from M12 to M377, then Insert - Chart and select line chart:
Simulated Price for One Year
We have now successfully completed one simulation. And depending on your results, they could look normal...or downright crazy.

STEP 7. SIMULATE A YEAR MANY TIMES

We completed one simulation, but we want to run many different trials.
Create a scenario tab, setup a table to simulate 1,000 different one-year trials. In A3 to A1003, put the numbers 1 through 1000.
In B3, put the formula:
=Close*EXP((annualDrift-0.5*annualVolatility^2)+annualVolatility*norminv(rand(),0,1)) 
Copy the formula down all the way. Name this range "scores":
Simulate Bitcoin Prices for Many Years

STEP 8. MULTI-YEAR SUMMARY STATISTICS

Set up a small summary table with the mean, median, standard deviation, min, max, and range of our new population. The formulas are:
=AVERAGE(scores) =STDEVP(scores) =MIN(scores) =MAX(scores) =E6-E5 
Multiyear Summary Statistics

STEP 9. QUICK ANALYSIS OF RESULTS

My results will look different than yours (due to the random nature of NORMDIST and the time you pulled the Bitcoin prices). But let's take a look at the results:
Mean $27,147 Median $16,097 St. Dev $37,243 Min $556 Max $479,586 Range $479,029 3sd $1,486 2sd $3,005 1sd $5,850 Cur $16,098 1sd $43,896 2sd $81,998 3sd $190,129 
How to read: We can be 95% certain that the price of Bitcoin will fall between $3,005, and $81,998 in one year.
Wait really? Should I buy? No, this is not telling you to buy. This should be one tool of many to help you in your buying and risk decisions.
Lognormal Distribution of Bitcoin Prices

CONCLUSION

You now know how to complete a geometric Brownian motion analysis of Bitcoin prices. Congratulations!
Good statistical analysis methods can be scary, but they don't have to be. Here we covered off on a great method for estimating future Bitcoin prices, which can also be applied to other cryptocurrencies.
With this new tool in place, you can be confident in your risk analysis methods by seeing all the possible outcomes of your decisions, and assess the impact of risk.
Deliberate. Analytical. Intelligent.

WANT YOUR OWN COPY?

Simulate Bitcoin Prices Download

RELATED POSTS

High-Flyers and Shitcoins: What I Learned from Analyzing CoinMarketCap Data in Google Sheets
7 Smart Ethereum Price Prediction Methods for HODL’ers

About the Author

John Young is the founder of Spreadstreet, former financial analyst for a big-ass company, and runner-up in the 6th grade spelling bee. He would have invested in Google if he knew about it...and had any money.
He is the author of the Spreadstreet blog, which has over 3 readers (not a typo). He hopes to hit 10, but honestly writing is a lot of work.
submitted by 1kexperimentdotcom to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

All about Memento, the image-driven Bitcoin social network (current BTC/USD price is $8,706.86)

Latest Bitcoin News:
All about Memento, the image-driven Bitcoin social network
Other Related Bitcoin Topics:
Bitcoin Price | Bitcoin Mining | Blockchain
The latest Bitcoin news has been sourced from the CoinSalad.com Bitcoin Price and News Events page. CoinSalad is a web service that provides real-time Bitcoin market info, charts, data and tools.
submitted by coinsaladcom to CoinSalad [link] [comments]

03-14 09:24 - 'were browsing old pictures, came across this image. the price of btc which dates july, 2017. it was the time i got into bitcoin and i remember feeling that the price was so inflated. it changed my perspective on wh...' (i.redd.it) by /u/tinawi removed from /r/Bitcoin within 427-437min

were browsing old pictures, came across this image. the price of btc which dates july, 2017. it was the time i got into bitcoin and i remember feeling that the price was so inflated. it changed my perspective on whats currently going. i was hoping itll have the same reassuring effect on some of you.
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: tinawi
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Madness: How to Simulate Bitcoin Prices in Google Sheets

Original Medium post can be found here: https://medium.com/@spreadstreet/bitcoin-madness-how-to-simulate-bitcoin-prices-in-google-sheets-c61cb42f26ed
You know the scenario...
Bitcoin had another huge increase, but you missed the opportunity. You wanted to get in, but your gut instinct told you no. And rightfully so...no one knows where the price is going to go. What if you invested, and it had another 20% loss? These sort of price movements are common in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies.
Seriously...how far can this Bitcoin price really go?

BITCOIN IS A VOLATILE BEAST

Risk analysis must be a part of every decision you make.
You are constantly faced with uncertainty, ambiguity, and variability. Variability, in the case of Bitcoin, unlike anything we have ever seen before. And even though we have unprecedented access to information, we can’t accurately predict the future.
Luckily, we have methods that enable you to see all the possible outcomes of your decisions, and assess the impact of risk.

WHERE TO START?

Running simulations can prepare us for the worst.
Monte Carlo simulation (also known as the Monte Carlo Method) allows for better decision making under uncertainty.
One of the most common ways to estimate risk is the use of a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). From Investopedia:
For example, to calculate the value at risk (VaR) of a portfolio, we can run a Monte Carlo simulation that attempts to predict the worst likely loss for a portfolio given a confidence interval over a specified time horizon - we always need to specify two conditions for VaR: confidence and horizon. (For related reading, see The Uses And Limits Of Volatility and Introduction To Value At Risk (VAR) - Part 1 and Part 2.)
A MCS can be run with many different models. Our own process will be:
  1. Specify a model (for here, we will use geometric Brownian motion)
  2. Get historical daily bitcoin prices
  3. Calculate daily returns
  4. Name the daily return range
  5. Summary statistics
  6. Simulate a year
  7. Simulate a year many times
  8. Multi-year summary statistics
  9. Quick analysis of results

STEP 1. WTF IS GEOMETRIC BROWNIAN MOTION?

The geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a statistical method that is used heavily in the forecasting of stock prices. The reason the process is so attractive for this is because of the following:
The GBM is technically a Markov process, which is a fancy way of saying "A random process whose future probabilities are determined by its most recent values." Said another way, past price information is already incorporated and the next price movement is "conditionally independent" of past price movements.
Math geeks have a habit of making things infinitely more complicated than they have to be. I will do my best to make this as simple as possible.
The formula for GBM is as follows:
gBm formula
Where:
This formula can be broken down into two very important terms: "drift" and "shock".
For each time period, our model assumes the price will "drift" up by the expected return. But the drift will be shocked (added or subtracted) by a random shock. The random shock will be the standard deviation "s" multiplied by a random number "e". This is simply a way of scaling the standard deviation.

STEP 1A. THE THUNDER GOD ELI5

The ELI5 version: The thunder god Zeus is a great god. A just god.
But Zeus is subject to wild mood swings.
Every day Zeus can shoot his magic lightning into the price of Bitcoin, and cause it to go up or down.
Some days he is in such a good mood, that he shocks the price up by a random amount. On other days, he is in such a poor mood that he shocks the price down for opposing him.
Zeus Striking Down the Price
And thus, we have the essence of GBM: a series of steps with an expected upward drift, where each step is hit with a plus/minus shock (which is a function of the stock's standard deviation).

STEP 2. HISTORICAL DAILY BITCOIN PRICES

Copy the raw data scores from coinmarketcap. Paste the data into your own spreadsheet.
For this exercise, your columns will be: Time, Open, Close, High, Low, Volume.
Columns Setup OHLCV
Want to automatically pull in Bitcoin prices? Use the Spreadstreet Google Sheets Add-in.

STEP 3. CALCULATE DAILY RETURNS

Calculate daily returns from the "Close" price. in H2 put the formula:
=LN(C2/B2) 
Drag it all the way down to the end of the prices to fill the entire Returns column
Calculate Daily Returns

STEP 4. NAME THE DAILY RETURNS RANGE

Create a named range from the returns column, called returns, to make our life easier. Highlight all the data in column H, i.e. cells H1:H1000, then click on the menu Data > Named ranges… and call the range returns:
Name the range returns

STEP 5. SUMMARY STATISTICS

Set up a small summary table with the close, daily volatility, annual volatility, daily drift, annual drift, and mean drift of our population. The formulas are:
In K1, enter:
=C2 
and name it close.
In K2, enter:
=STDEV(returns) 
and name it dailyVolatility
In K3, enter:
=dailyVolatility*SQRT(365) 
and name it annualVolatility
In K4, enter:
=AVERAGE(returns) 
and name it dailyDrift
In K5, enter:
=dailyDrift*365 
and name it annualDrift
In K6, enter:
=dailyDrift-0.5*dailyVolatility^2 
and name it meanDrift
Create Summary Statistics Table

STEP 6. SIMULATE A YEAR

Setup the yearly simulation table with Time, Normdist, Log Return, and Simulated Price

Time

In J12 put 0, and in J13 put:
=J12+1 
Drag it all the way down to your preferred forecast timeframe. Here I simulated a year (365 days), so I copied down to J377
Time

Normdist

Let’s set up the normal distribution curve values.
Google Sheets has a formula NORMDIST which calculates the value of the normal distribution function for a given value, mean and standard deviation. Since we ascribe to the random walk theory, we want to use a mean of 0, and a standard deviation of 1.
In K13, put the formula:
=NORMINV(RAND(),0,1) 
Drag it all the way down to K377 to fill the whole Normdist column:
Normdist

Log Return

To get the percentage of daily stock movement, we will calculate log return.
In L13, put the formula:
=meanDrift+dailyVolatility*K13 
Copy the formula all the way down to L377:
Log Return

Simulated Price

Now to the real meat. Let's calculate the simulated Bitcoin price.
In M12 put the Close price, and in M13, put:
=M12*EXP(L13) 
Copy the formula all the way down to M377:
Simulated Price

Forecasted Bitcoin price for one year

Let's see what the pricing data looks like.
Select from M12 to M377, then Insert - Chart and select line chart:
Simulated Price for One Year
We have now successfully completed one simulation. And depending on your results, they could look normal...or downright crazy.

STEP 7. SIMULATE A YEAR MANY TIMES

We completed one simulation, but we want to run many different trials.
Create a scenario tab, setup a table to simulate 1,000 different one-year trials. In A3 to A1003, put the numbers 1 through 1000.
In B3, put the formula:
=Close*EXP((annualDrift-0.5*annualVolatility^2)+annualVolatility*norminv(rand(),0,1)) 
Copy the formula down all the way. Name this range "scores":
Simulate Bitcoin Prices for Many Years

STEP 8. MULTI-YEAR SUMMARY STATISTICS

Set up a small summary table with the mean, median, standard deviation, min, max, and range of our new population. The formulas are:
=AVERAGE(scores) =STDEVP(scores) =MIN(scores) =MAX(scores) =E6-E5 
Multiyear Summary Statistics

STEP 9. QUICK ANALYSIS OF RESULTS

My results will look different than yours (due to the random nature of NORMDIST and the time you pulled the Bitcoin prices). But let's take a look at the results:
Mean $27,147 Median $16,097 St. Dev $37,243 Min $556 Max $479,586 Range $479,029 3sd $1,486 2sd $3,005 1sd $5,850 Cur $16,098 1sd $43,896 2sd $81,998 3sd $190,129 
How to read: We can be 95% certain that the price of Bitcoin will fall between $3,005, and $81,998 in one year.
Wait really? Should I buy? No, this is not telling you to buy. This should be one tool of many to help you in your buying and risk decisions.
Lognormal Distribution of Bitcoin Prices

CONCLUSION

You now know how to complete a geometric Brownian motion analysis of Bitcoin prices. Congratulations!
Good statistical analysis methods can be scary, but they don't have to be. Here we covered off on a great method for estimating future Bitcoin prices, which can also be applied to other cryptocurrencies.
With this new tool in place, you can be confident in your risk analysis methods by seeing all the possible outcomes of your decisions, and assess the impact of risk.
Deliberate. Analytical. Intelligent.

WANT YOUR OWN COPY?

Simulate Bitcoin Prices Download

RELATED POSTS

High-Flyers and Shitcoins: What I Learned from Analyzing CoinMarketCap Data in Google Sheets
7 Smart Ethereum Price Prediction Methods for HODL’ers

About the Author

John Young is the founder of Spreadstreet, former financial analyst for a big-ass company, and runner-up in the 6th grade spelling bee. He would have invested in Google if he knew about it...and had any money.
He is the author of the Spreadstreet blog, which has over 3 readers (not a typo). He hopes to hit 10, but honestly writing is a lot of work.
submitted by 1kexperimentdotcom to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Madness: How to Simulate Bitcoin Prices in Google Sheets

Original Medium post can be found here: https://medium.com/@spreadstreet/bitcoin-madness-how-to-simulate-bitcoin-prices-in-google-sheets-c61cb42f26ed
You know the scenario...
Bitcoin had another huge increase, but you missed the opportunity. You wanted to get in, but your gut instinct told you no. And rightfully so...no one knows where the price is going to go. What if you invested, and it had another 20% loss? These sort of price movements are common in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies.
Seriously...how far can this Bitcoin price really go?

BITCOIN IS A VOLATILE BEAST

Risk analysis must be a part of every decision you make.
You are constantly faced with uncertainty, ambiguity, and variability. Variability, in the case of Bitcoin, unlike anything we have ever seen before. And even though we have unprecedented access to information, we can’t accurately predict the future.
Luckily, we have methods that enable you to see all the possible outcomes of your decisions, and assess the impact of risk.

WHERE TO START?

Running simulations can prepare us for the worst.
Monte Carlo simulation (also known as the Monte Carlo Method) allows for better decision making under uncertainty.
One of the most common ways to estimate risk is the use of a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). From Investopedia:
For example, to calculate the value at risk (VaR) of a portfolio, we can run a Monte Carlo simulation that attempts to predict the worst likely loss for a portfolio given a confidence interval over a specified time horizon - we always need to specify two conditions for VaR: confidence and horizon. (For related reading, see The Uses And Limits Of Volatility and Introduction To Value At Risk (VAR) - Part 1 and Part 2.)
A MCS can be run with many different models. Our own process will be:
  1. Specify a model (for here, we will use geometric Brownian motion)
  2. Get historical daily bitcoin prices
  3. Calculate daily returns
  4. Name the daily return range
  5. Summary statistics
  6. Simulate a year
  7. Simulate a year many times
  8. Multi-year summary statistics
  9. Quick analysis of results

STEP 1. WTF IS GEOMETRIC BROWNIAN MOTION?

The geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a statistical method that is used heavily in the forecasting of stock prices. The reason the process is so attractive for this is because of the following:
The GBM is technically a Markov process, which is a fancy way of saying "A random process whose future probabilities are determined by its most recent values." Said another way, past price information is already incorporated and the next price movement is "conditionally independent" of past price movements.
Math geeks have a habit of making things infinitely more complicated than they have to be. I will do my best to make this as simple as possible.
The formula for GBM is as follows:
gBm formula
Where:
This formula can be broken down into two very important terms: "drift" and "shock".
For each time period, our model assumes the price will "drift" up by the expected return. But the drift will be shocked (added or subtracted) by a random shock. The random shock will be the standard deviation "s" multiplied by a random number "e". This is simply a way of scaling the standard deviation.

STEP 1A. THE THUNDER GOD ELI5

The ELI5 version: The thunder god Zeus is a great god. A just god.
But Zeus is subject to wild mood swings.
Every day Zeus can shoot his magic lightning into the price of Bitcoin, and cause it to go up or down.
Some days he is in such a good mood, that he shocks the price up by a random amount. On other days, he is in such a poor mood that he shocks the price down for opposing him.
Zeus Striking Down the Price
And thus, we have the essence of GBM: a series of steps with an expected upward drift, where each step is hit with a plus/minus shock (which is a function of the stock's standard deviation).

STEP 2. HISTORICAL DAILY BITCOIN PRICES

Copy the raw data scores from coinmarketcap. Paste the data into your own spreadsheet.
For this exercise, your columns will be: Time, Open, Close, High, Low, Volume.
Columns Setup OHLCV
Want to automatically pull in Bitcoin prices? Use the Spreadstreet Google Sheets Add-in.

STEP 3. CALCULATE DAILY RETURNS

Calculate daily returns from the "Close" price. in H2 put the formula:
=LN(C2/B2) 
Drag it all the way down to the end of the prices to fill the entire Returns column
Calculate Daily Returns

STEP 4. NAME THE DAILY RETURNS RANGE

Create a named range from the returns column, called returns, to make our life easier. Highlight all the data in column H, i.e. cells H1:H1000, then click on the menu Data > Named ranges… and call the range returns:
Name the range returns

STEP 5. SUMMARY STATISTICS

Set up a small summary table with the close, daily volatility, annual volatility, daily drift, annual drift, and mean drift of our population. The formulas are:
In K1, enter:
=C2 
and name it close.
In K2, enter:
=STDEV(returns) 
and name it dailyVolatility
In K3, enter:
=dailyVolatility*SQRT(365) 
and name it annualVolatility
In K4, enter:
=AVERAGE(returns) 
and name it dailyDrift
In K5, enter:
=dailyDrift*365 
and name it annualDrift
In K6, enter:
=dailyDrift-0.5*dailyVolatility^2 
and name it meanDrift
Create Summary Statistics Table

STEP 6. SIMULATE A YEAR

Setup the yearly simulation table with Time, Normdist, Log Return, and Simulated Price

Time

In J12 put 0, and in J13 put:
=J12+1 
Drag it all the way down to your preferred forecast timeframe. Here I simulated a year (365 days), so I copied down to J377
Time

Normdist

Let’s set up the normal distribution curve values.
Google Sheets has a formula NORMDIST which calculates the value of the normal distribution function for a given value, mean and standard deviation. Since we ascribe to the random walk theory, we want to use a mean of 0, and a standard deviation of 1.
In K13, put the formula:
=NORMINV(RAND(),0,1) 
Drag it all the way down to K377 to fill the whole Normdist column:
Normdist

Log Return

To get the percentage of daily stock movement, we will calculate log return.
In L13, put the formula:
=meanDrift+dailyVolatility*K13 
Copy the formula all the way down to L377:
Log Return

Simulated Price

Now to the real meat. Let's calculate the simulated Bitcoin price.
In M12 put the Close price, and in M13, put:
=M12*EXP(L13) 
Copy the formula all the way down to M377:
Simulated Price

Forecasted Bitcoin price for one year

Let's see what the pricing data looks like.
Select from M12 to M377, then Insert - Chart and select line chart:
Simulated Price for One Year
We have now successfully completed one simulation. And depending on your results, they could look normal...or downright crazy.

STEP 7. SIMULATE A YEAR MANY TIMES

We completed one simulation, but we want to run many different trials.
Create a scenario tab, setup a table to simulate 1,000 different one-year trials. In A3 to A1003, put the numbers 1 through 1000.
In B3, put the formula:
=Close*EXP((annualDrift-0.5*annualVolatility^2)+annualVolatility*norminv(rand(),0,1)) 
Copy the formula down all the way. Name this range "scores":
Simulate Bitcoin Prices for Many Years

STEP 8. MULTI-YEAR SUMMARY STATISTICS

Set up a small summary table with the mean, median, standard deviation, min, max, and range of our new population. The formulas are:
=AVERAGE(scores) =STDEVP(scores) =MIN(scores) =MAX(scores) =E6-E5 
Multiyear Summary Statistics

STEP 9. QUICK ANALYSIS OF RESULTS

My results will look different than yours (due to the random nature of NORMDIST and the time you pulled the Bitcoin prices). But let's take a look at the results:
Mean $27,147 Median $16,097 St. Dev $37,243 Min $556 Max $479,586 Range $479,029 3sd $1,486 2sd $3,005 1sd $5,850 Cur $16,098 1sd $43,896 2sd $81,998 3sd $190,129 
How to read: We can be 95% certain that the price of Bitcoin will fall between $3,005, and $81,998 in one year.
Wait really? Should I buy? No, this is not telling you to buy. This should be one tool of many to help you in your buying and risk decisions.
Lognormal Distribution of Bitcoin Prices

CONCLUSION

You now know how to complete a geometric Brownian motion analysis of Bitcoin prices. Congratulations!
Good statistical analysis methods can be scary, but they don't have to be. Here we covered off on a great method for estimating future Bitcoin prices, which can also be applied to other cryptocurrencies.
With this new tool in place, you can be confident in your risk analysis methods by seeing all the possible outcomes of your decisions, and assess the impact of risk.
Deliberate. Analytical. Intelligent.

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About the Author

John Young is the founder of Spreadstreet, former financial analyst for a big-ass company, and runner-up in the 6th grade spelling bee. He would have invested in Google if he knew about it...and had any money.
He is the author of the Spreadstreet blog, which has over 3 readers (not a typo). He hopes to hit 10, but honestly writing is a lot of work.
submitted by 1kexperimentdotcom to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

quityourbullshit | Image | "Trying to sell fake bitcoin for real bitcoin price"

submitted by transcribersofreddit to TranscribersOfReddit [link] [comments]

Never forget where we came from

Never forget where we came from submitted by AdamtoZ to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Shower thought: This old image of Bitcoin sarcastically being "on sale" because the price was freefalling turned out to be a legitimate advertisement

Shower thought: This old image of Bitcoin sarcastically being submitted by LeeWallis to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

0.12.8.9457 Content Discussion and Questions Megathread

https://forum.escapefromtarkov.com/topic/139581-patch-notes-for-01289457/
Please post all questions related to the new update in this thread.
NOTE: There will be no wipe with 12.8
Added:
New equipment:
New weapons and weapons parts:
Quality of Life changes:
Optimization
AI improvements:
Fixed:
Changed:
submitted by bobbypower to EscapefromTarkov [link] [comments]

Preliminary patch notes for 12.8 patch!

Added:
New equipment:
New weapons and weapons parts:
Quality of Life changes:
Optimization
AI improvements
Fixed:
Changed:
The 12.8 patch will NOT be on this week! Need to polish everything!
submitted by trainfender to EscapefromTarkov [link] [comments]

Someone took the bitcoin price and overlaid it with the bubble image. Thoughts?

submitted by jestertoo to NiceHash [link] [comments]

BTC Stock-to-flow Chart in 2012 vs BTC Stock-to-flow Chart in 2020. Crazy how there isn't much deviation. Taken from @bitharington and @100trillionUSD on twitter

So, image 1, created in what appears to be circa 2012: https://imgur.com/a/ZrIYXXi
And image 2, which appears to be created a few weeks ago: https://imgur.com/a/T8oRTop
In all honesty, this doesn't make me think "If bitcoin hits 1 million USD, but but rather when." almost entirely unquestionably.
submitted by sgtslaughterTV to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

HODL'rs - [Android App] i've created an android app where you can share text, images or youtube videos and also view Bitcoin charts and prices and also track your portfolio value. Everything is fully encrypted. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated

HODL'rs - [Android App] i've created an android app where you can share text, images or youtube videos and also view Bitcoin charts and prices and also track your portfolio value. Everything is fully encrypted. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated submitted by NoEndlessness to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Market Price Manipulation (images)

Bitcoin Market Price Manipulation (images) submitted by FuturesManipulation to bitcoin_uncensored [link] [comments]

NightOwl Halloween Drop: Descriptions, Info, FAQ and Tips

This will be the last I'll post in-regards to NightOwl drops.From now on drop info will be posted in the NightOwlseeds subreddit
We can only pin 2 posts at a time, and it can get confusing for new and existing users.
I will be updating this thread throughout the day, check last edited.- NightOwl subreddit linked,

THE NIGHTOWL STORE IS CLOSED.

Link to The Seed Bazaar

F.A.Q

"My pack has a blank label, how do I know what I have?"

Those are the "Secret Owl Society" packs, they come labeled with UV ink. Daz almost always provides a small blacklight keychain, use it to reveal the pack name.

"Can I make multiple orders and get the tester pack?"

As long as the combined total is $250, and hasn't been shipped yet, then you get 1 tester pack ($500 for 2 tester packs).
A new bit of info, you get another tester pack per $250 spent, dealer's choice.

"Do I need to purchase on TSB Premium?

No, go to the regular store page

"Do I need TSB Premium to make a purchase?"

No, you don't need TSB Premium to make a purchase. This was an option for paying members to get a chance to access the drop early. Nothing was exclusive to premium, everyone has access to all the strains.

"I got a confirmation email, it still says "processing", should I be worried?"

As long as you have a confirmation email (maybe a paid email), then there's nothing to worry about your order has been received.

"How do I register for a free account?"

There should be a sign-in button at the bottom of the page, or the NightOwl Store page. Look at this image to help.

"Is there any freebies?"

Like Mephisto, Nightowl will give you 2 extra seeds on 3 seed pack orders. Same cultivar. No freebie tiers like Mephisto.

Order related issue?

Email [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
I will update with more FAQs as the day goes.

DROP DAY INFO NOW PAST

When purchasing NightOwl seeds from The Seed Bazaar on 10/10 at 12 AM, WHATEVER IS IN YOUR CART, ISN'T RESERVED.
NEW TIPS
ITEMS ARE ADDED/UPDATED ONE BY ONE.
THERE ARE TWO PAGES OF SEEDS.
IF YOU HAVE AN ISSUE WITH YOUR ORDER EMAIL [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
PREMIUM ISN'T NECESSARY.
It's best to purchase what you want FAST, everything is and always has been limited in quantity. Don't leave the item(s) in your cart and go check your plants and start some LST or a res change, don't go start cleaning your tent, CHECK YOUR ITEMS OUT FAST.
Orders usually are combined to help with shipping, this should help with ordering fast, and comments have been enabled at checkout too 👍.
Last tip, make an account ahead of time, and login. Should help speed up the checkout process.
Price per pack is $50 USD. Website and packaging say 3 seeds but typically get 5 no option for other pack sizes, plus free international shipping.
This is the LAST SCHEDULED DROP from NightOwl till Valentine's day, which is expected to have the new F4 photo to auto cultivars. This is if there aren't any delays or setbacks in the timeline.
The new NightOwl Sweater doesn't have a set date yet, could be some time in November.
Chocolates are for the US only, food and customs don't go together. I THINK Daz said put it in the comments if you'd like the chocolate and he'd get back to you to figure out how to ship it (might have to pay for packaging and postage).
Only If there are chocolates or ashtrays left, Daz will offer them up as an item on the seed bazaar for the cost of shipping which is usually around $15.
Seedopoly boards are being sent out, pieces won't go out till the New Year, and the prizes are US only.

Promotion:

Tester packs are labeled, but unknown till you receive it.

Scratch Card Game

Match the Mummies, scratch card game *WHILE SUPPLIES LAST, 1st COME 1st SERVED\*

Descriptions (Quick Description from Daz)

Limited Edition:

Galaxy Brain 1:30:00

Zamaldelica Express x Cosmic Queen
75/25 Sativa/Indica
75-80 days from sprout
A long time coming, the Galaxy Brain is finally here! These large, branchy plants are covered with frost from the stems up! Piercingly sweet fruit scents and mouth coating flavors accompany a soaring euphoric head high, along with a relaxing body effect that doesn’t hamper your daily activities. I’m expecting this one to become a staple in the autoflower connoisseur’s garden. The reversal used was selected from over 40 Cosmic Queens and was extremely sativa dominant. I used this same expression for an unreleased seed run a few years back and she produced some of the most exquisitely beautiful and flavorful flowers. The female used was extremely pungent, with sappy and bulbous resin heads that stink up the whole room when burst. She also had extremely fat calyxes, providing massive amounts of surface area for the resin heads to call home.

Spotless Mind 1:39:00

Fugue State x Cosmic Queen
True F1 Hybrid Limited Edition
75/25 Sativa/Indica
75-85 days from sprout
2-4 ounces average
3 Feminized Seeds
Large, easy growing sativa dominant plants with heavy branching and intense crystal production. Super sweet, peppery, and buttery flavors accompany an intensely uplifting head high and an electrically charged body feel. The Spotless Mind name gives a tip of the cap to the Amnesia Haze in her heritage, which carries through to this cross. Overindulge and you will find yourself becoming forgetful and may experience recollection difficulties, but in a fun way. She has also been known to encourage bedroom activities, making for a nice nightstand stash. If you are looking for an anytime sativa that won’t make your mind race aimlessly, look no further. The same reversal that was used for Galaxy Brain and Cosmic Apprentice was also used for this Limited Edition.

Secret Owl Society:

Electric Qoolaid 1:32:18

Blue Microverse F4 x Cosmic Queen F4 *Quick Finish*
50/50 Sativa/Indica
65-75 days from sprout
1.5-3 ounce average
3 Feminized Seeds
Expect medium to large plants with creamy blue raspberry lemonade golf ball buds running along the side branches, leading up to chunky top colas all wrapped in gooey, long-stemmed trichomes. Another beautiful true F1 hybrid with a 50/50 blend for a balanced, comforting mind and body experience. Great for relaxing after work when you’re ready to start winding down. For the reversal I used a stocky, faster finishing Cosmic Queen as the pollen donor which will help add vigor and potency while keeping the stretch down.
**Be sure to keep airflow and humidity in check during the final few weeks, as the flower density can lead to bud rot in the wrong conditions. **

Judy Gemstone 1:32:44

Strawberry Nuggets F4 x Cosmic Queen F4 *Quick Finish*
40/60 Sativa/Indica
65-75 days from sprout
1.5-3 ounce average
3 Feminized Seeds
Expect medium-sized bushes with very sturdy branches that reach up and fill the canopy alongside the main cola. Rock hard nugs of pinks, purples, emerald, and blue hues will create all the bag appeal you could ask for, with a sweet cheesy strawberry funk that will have you smelling the bag again and again. Another true F1 and the heaviest indica hybrid of the lot, ranging from therapeutic to narcotic depending on your intake. Perfect for a dessert smoke or nightcap to relax your body before sailing off into the dream world. For the reversal I used a stocky, faster finishing Cosmic Queen as the pollen donor which will help add vigor and potency while keeping the stretch down.
***Be sure to keep an eye on these during early as the Strawberry Nuggets line can throw a ball or two during sexing, right where the side branches meet the main stem. It is rare, but can be brought about by stress or too strong an application of nutes during the sexing stage and seems to be most common when using humic acid. If you do see a ball pop up it can be removed and the plant will continue on fully female to finish her life. Also, keep airflow and humidity in check during the final few weeks, as the flower density can lead to bud rot in the wrong conditions. **\*

Karmic Connection 1:33:03

(Chem City Blues x Chemdogging) X Cosmic Queen F4 *Super Sativa*
60/40 Sativa/Indica
75-85 days from sprout
2-4 ounce average
3 Feminized Seeds
Expect large, easy growing plants with satellite branches that reach up to the shoulders of the canopy, but be sure to stake her before she goes too far into flower or she will buckle under the weight of her blooms. The piercing old school perfumes she puts off range from skunky blueberries to creamy chems, and her soda can cola structure is sure to impress! This F1 polyhybrid is recommended for heavier smokers and those looking for help with pain management, and can be a bit too much too fast for the uninitiated. Carbon filters are always a must indoors, and best to make sure they’re in proper working order before running these. The Cosmic Queen reversal used for this cross was what I consider the super sativa expression of CQ. Tall, stretchy, thinner leaves, incredibly sweet resin, bag appeal, pest, and pm resistant with an elongated bud structure that is excellent for outdoors and in. Don’t miss out!

Mango Sunrise 1:34:28

Mango Smile x Cosmic Queen F4 *Super Sativa*
70/30 Sativa/Indica
75-85 days from sprout
2-4 ounce average
3 Feminized Seeds
Expect large, easy growing plants with sturdy branching and individual bud sites running their length, met with a small cola cluster at their end. This true F1 hybrid has beautiful tropical citrus flavors that will send you off on an island vacation, while the effects will leave you physically and mentally heightened and ready for anything the day throws your way! Extremely pleasant all day/everyday smoke, sure to be a crowd-pleaser. The Cosmic Queen reversal used for this cross was what I consider the super sativa expression of CQ. Tall, stretchy, thinner leaves, incredibly sweet resin, bag appeal, pest, and pm resistant with an elongated bud structure that is excellent for outdoors and in. Don’t miss out!

Milk and Qookies 1:35:15

Forum Stomper x Cosmic Queen F4 *Quick Finish*
60/40 Sativa/Indica
65-75 days from sprout
1.5-3 ounce average
3 Feminized Seeds
Expect medium-sized bushes with stout branches that reach up and form a canopy surrounding the main cola. Incredibly resinous chunky white nugs and dark forest green foliage fade to the deepest purples and blacks under cooler temperatures. She will have true F1 hybrid vigor and produce a delicious mix of forum cookies and cosmic cream flavors along with an abundance of “fall off the stalk” gland heads that will put everything else around your trimbin to shame. Effects are stoney, both physically and mentally, without the couchlock. She could easily fill the role of all day/everyday smoke if you have a decent tolerance already. For the reversal I used a stocky, faster finishing Cosmic Queen as the pollen donor which will help add vigor and potency while keeping the stretch down.

Space Station Orange v.2 1:36:50

Super Orange Haze F4 X Cosmic Queen F4 *Super Sativa*
70/30 Sativa/Indica
70-80 days from sprout
1.5-3 ounce average
3 Feminized Seeds
Expect medium-sized, easy growing plants with shorter side branches that reach about half the height of the main cola. Floral and sour citrus flavors with an uplifting effect that is great for early morning and afternoon indulgences. Bag appeal is also of no concern, as this true F1 hybrid has it in spades! The Cosmic Queen reversal used for this cross was what I consider the super sativa expression of CQ. Tall, stretchy, thinner leaves, incredibly sweet resin, bag appeal, pest, and pm resistant with an elongated bud structure that is excellent for outdoors and in. Don’t miss out!

Star Krunch 1:37:18

Toof Decay x Cosmic Queen F4 *Quick Finish*
50/50 Sativa/Indica
65-75 days from sprout
1.5-3 ounce average
3 Feminized Seeds
Expect medium-sized bushes with stout branches that almost reach the height of the main cola. Extremely dense buds covered in sweet bakery and candy-flavored resin that will leave you wanting more. Cooler temperatures can bring out some beautiful fall colors that only add to her visual appeal. Stoney without the narcotic effect, great for an afternoon delight or as a post-meal treat. For the reversal I used a stocky, faster finishing Cosmic Queen as the pollen donor which will help add vigor and potency to this true F1, while keeping the stretch down.
***Be sure to keep an eye on these during early as the Toof Decay line can throw a ball or two during sexing, right where the side branches meet the main stem. It is rare, but can be brought about by stress or too strong an application of nutes during the sexing stage and seems to be most common when using humic acid. If you do see a ball pop up it can be removed and the plant will continue on fully female to finish her life. Also, keep airflow and humidity in check during the final few weeks, as the flower density can lead to bud rot in the wrong conditions. **\*

Creme De La Cosmos 1:38:23

Creme de la Soul F1 x Cosmic Queen F4 Quick Finish
50/50 Sativa/Indica
65-75 days from sprout
1.5-3 ounce average
3 Feminized Seeds
Expect medium plants with stout satellite branches reaching up to the shoulders of the main colas. Dense nugs covered in oily resin ranging in smells from red berries and sneakers to creamy grapes, this F1 polyhybrid has a lot to offer! Cooler temperatures can bring on fades of reds and purples, making her an absolute beauty in her final days. She has a balanced physical and mental high, leaning towards the stoney end of the spectrum, and will make for a great evening smoke. For the reversal I used a stocky, faster finishing Cosmic Queen as the pollen donor which will help add vigor and potency while keeping the stretch down.
Be sure to keep airflow and humidity in check during the final few weeks, as the flower density can lead to bud rot.

Shekinah 1:40:55

Supernatural OG x Cosmic Queen F4 Super Sativa
70/30 Sativa/Indica
75-85 days from sprout
2-4 ounce average
3 Feminized Seeds
Expect large, easy growing plants with sturdy branching and individual bud sites running their length, met with a medium cola cluster at their ends, with a large main cola. This F1 poly hybrid is chock full of hazey goodness! Flavors range from effervescent lemon-lime, to heavy juniper laced gin and tonic. The juniper flavors are my personal favorite and tend to kick my ass and get me super stoney, while the citrusy ones are more motivational. There’s a variety of outstanding expressions to be found in these, all on the sativa end of the spectrum. The Cosmic Queen reversal used for this cross was what I consider the super sativa expression of CQ. Tall, stretchy, thinner leaves, incredibly sweet resin, bag appeal, pest and pm resistant with an elongated bud structure that is excellent for outdoors and in. Don’t miss out!
Blessed by Hoodoo Moses I

Restock

Cosmic Apprentice (No Video)

Wizard’s Apprentice F4 x Cosmic Queen F4
Sativa
75 days from sprout
"Ready to get heady? Crossing a big-bodied sativa dominant Wizard’s Apprentice to the rush inducing Cosmic Queen resulted in a whole new variety that will keep your head in the clouds! Large plants with denser buds than Cosmic Queen, an overload of frost, and nostril piercing neon sweet and hazey scents finishing right around 75 days. If you’re into uplifting sativa effects with chunkier buds then she is definitely worth checking out."

Cheech Biggums 1:40:42

Wizard’s Apprentice F4 x Tyrone Stomper F6
Indica
70 days from sprout
A long time coming, the Cheech Biggums is sure to impress! Using a heavy Cheech Wizard dominant Wizard’s Apprentice mated to the ever-impressive Tyrone Stomper will produce medium to large, extra vigorous true F1 hybrids with fruity OG gas flavors and an occasional piney/floral expression in a quick 70ish days from sprout.
Picture of Post

February Drop Info

Copied from Daz's IG post.
Thank you all for your patience with me these past few weeks. I've been handling a lot of business behind the scenes in preparation for big things next year. 2020 was the year of staying off the radar with most of my big projects and not drawing any unnecessary attention. 2021 is the year of getting licensed and really showing you what it's all about! Thank you for your trust and faith in me during my overly cautious past few months/years. I won't let you down.🙏🌱🦉🌱🙏New photo to autos scheduled for the first half of 2021:
Pre '98 Bubba Kush x Auto Skywalker F4
Dosidos x Forum Stomper F4
Purple Punch x Forum Stomper F4
Sunset Sherbet x Forum Stomper F4
*Latest Update*The next scheduled drop Daz is aiming for is Valentine's day. This drop should include the new F4 photo to auto cultivars listed above, again as long as nothing delays this.

Originals and Regular seeds Restock

They are a work in progress
, Originals and Regular seeds shouldn't be expected till February earliest, and will MOST LIKELY be mid-2021 If there are no setbacks.

Seedbanks that carry NightOwl, and the Seedbank Drop

Not always up to date, post a comment if something has changed.
SeedBank Squanch Queen Foot Cheese Head Cheese Payment International Carry Mephisto Freebies
Neptune Seedbank Yes Yes Yes Credit Card (US Only), Bitcoin, PMC Gold, Cash Yes Yes *Need User Input
Supreme Seedbank Yes Yes Yes Money Gram/ Venmo/ Cash App/ Zelle, Money Order, Debit/ Credit (US ONLY 3.5% fee), Custom payment, Bitcoin, eGiftCertificate Yes Yes *Need User Input
Treestar Seedbank Yes Yes Yes Credit Card, Bitcoin, Money Order, Cash, Western Union, Cash App, Zelle Yes Yes Yes In-house freebies
Harvest Mutual Yes Yes Yes Cash, Money Order, Credit Card, Paypal Yes Yes Yes Masonic Freebies
Insane Seeds Yes Yes Yes Bitcoin, Cash, Credit Card Yes Yes No SALE ON HEAD CHEESE %25 OFF
DC Seed Exchange Yes Yes Yes Debit Card, Cash, Money Order, eCheck, Cryptocurrencies No Yes Sometimes / Use "5%DCSEEDS" for 5% off
Oregon Elite Seedbank Yes Yes Yes Cash, Money Order, Cryptocurrencies Yes No *Need User Input
Hembra Genetics No Yes Yes Cash, Cash App *need user input No No No / $45/pack
RMH719 SOLD OUT No No No Cash, Bitcoin *need user input No No Sometimes In-house Freebie
RMHCA SOLD OUT No No No Cash, Bitcoin, E-transfer No No Sometimes In-house Freebie

submitted by BlueJayin to MephHeads [link] [comments]

Don't look the price per BTC, look at his market share and try to image the future /r/Bitcoin

submitted by HiIAMCaptainObvious to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Image of ATMs in the eastern region of the Ukraine right now. Next headline coming up soon, "Bitcoin price shoots up on news that Ukrainian citizens are converting to bitcoin in masses."

Image of ATMs in the eastern region of the Ukraine right now. Next headline coming up soon, submitted by hietheiy to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Market Price Manipulation (images)

Bitcoin Market Price Manipulation (images) submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

HODL'rs - [Android App] i've created an android app where you can share text, images or youtube videos and also view Bitcoin charts and prices and also track your portfolio value. Everything is fully encrypted. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated /r/Bitcoin

HODL'rs - [Android App] i've created an android app where you can share text, images or youtube videos and also view Bitcoin charts and prices and also track your portfolio value. Everything is fully encrypted. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated /Bitcoin submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

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